Few problems for favourites

GROUP favourites have a strong recent record in the World Cup with six of the eight topping the section in each of the last two editions.

The more nations the bigger the gulf in quality and Argentina should have few problems getting past Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, although there are different situations to consider.

With Group C finishing after Group D it could be that if France are runners-up Argentina might want to also end in second to avoid the holders. If most of the seedings go the way it is expected Argentina would definitely be better off taking second if France are runnersup because it would mean the holders, Netherlands, Brazil and either Spain or Germany are in one half of the draw. The other? Well, that would be one of Spain or Germany plus England, Portugal and Belgium.

However, it’s a convoluted theory for now. Professional footballers don’t tend to lose on purpose, the draw rarely works out perfectly in these tournaments and France are strong favourites to top their group, so it could be argued there will be a great desire from Argentina to avoid facing them early.

Argentina, Copa America winners last year, are in great form and are looking to break Italy’s international record of 37 matches unbeaten during this World Cup.

There looks to be almost nothing between Mexico and Poland, and not by enough for a bet either way, while Saudi Arabia should finish bottom. Given the record of group favourites, consider doubling up Argentina with Netherlands at around 11-10. Best bet

Argentina to win Group C & Netherlands to win Group A 1pt double