Big fences will bring out the best in Rouge again

Stick with the specialists

Back in 2009, Vic Venturi was the sixth successive winner to be experiencing the unique spruce fences for the first time, but how the tide has turned.

The only Aintree debutant to triumph in the last decade was Walk In The Mill, who returned the following year and won again.

Leading fancies Escaria Ten, Snow Leopardess and Mighty Thunder can therefore be opposed right away.

The Grand National is naturally influential, with six of the last 13 winners competing in April (finishing F5B774).

Last year’s winner Vieux Lion Rouge didn’t happen to run in that year’s National but has run in another five.

Weight worries

The 2017 winner Blaklion went against the grain.

He became the first rated north of 148 in 19 years and the first in eight years to have more than 10st 12lb. Normal business has since resumed.

Although eight of the last 13 winners were rated no higher than 138, it makes sense to also respect those in the low to mid 140s.

The top eight horses in the handicap are rated from 150 to 162 – including another fancied runner in Kimberlite Candy – and yet horses rated 150+ are only 1-32 in the last 13 renewals.

Age no barrier

How many other handicaps of this stature in recent times have been won by horses aged 11, 12, 13 and 14? Indeed, no fewer than 12 of the Becher’s 29 winners have been aged in double-digits.

The significance of experience, and evidently lots of it, can’t be stressed enough.

In 2016 Vieux Lion Rouge became only the third winning seven-year-old and 12 of the last 13 had raced at least 13 times over fences in Britain or Ireland. Escaria Ten, Snow Leopardess and Mighty Thunder are all in single figures.

One of those runs should ideally have been within the last two months as, although there have been seven firsttime-out winners since 1998, 11 of the last 14 reaped the rewards of some recent match practice. This further slashes the shortlist.

Verdict

A strong trends race and the

demands are clear.

The suggestion needs to have plenty of chasing experience and ideally with some of it over these famous fences, while also lurking towards the lower reaches of the handicap.

Vieux Lion Rouge did this feature a favour when the 12-1 winner last year and he’s not without hope of winning himself a third Becher.

He could jump around Aintree with his eyes shut and his recent seventh at Chepstow was a more encouraging prep run than 12 months ago.

Others who merit a mention are Le Breuil, who made a shuddering mistake four out when finishing third as one of the favourites last season, and Hogan’s Height.