Toffees stuck in a rut after years of poor transfer dealings

GUS POYET was on Amazon Prime’s coverage of the Premier League this week and spoke about the savvy dealings of Brentford and his former club Brighton.

Poyet admitted to not fully grasping the numbers that were handed to him at Brighton. I am paraphrasing but it went something like “they give you a sheet with a lot of numbers on chances, player actions and when you have big probabilities to win.

“I didn’t fully understand the data but it works. It works for Brighton and it works for Brentford.”

Brighton and Brentford are owned by Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham respectively, guys who made their mark betting on football where the appreciation for underlying statistics looking at performances way beyond the results is much more understood than it is by stereotypical “proper football men”.

They both used to be mocked and would probably prefer it if that were still the case as there would be fewer clubs trying to copy a successful approach.

Their shrewdness in the transfer market, particularly Brentford’s, shows how thinking smart can still make a significant difference even if a strong link remains between wage bill and success in the overall footballing landscape.

If Brentford and Brighton are a template of how teams can punch above their weight, Everton, are the perfect example of how a succession of decisions lacking in imagination can mean abject underachievement.

Owner Farhad Moshiri has spent more than £500m since arriving in 2016 and in return has seen his team average 54 points in the past five seasons, no domestic cup run beyond a quarter-final and one European campaign which ended at the Europa League group stage.

Look at the list of managers since June 2016 – Ronald Koeman, Sam Allardyce, Marco Silva, Carlo Ancelotti and Rafa Benitez. What is their philosophy? What are they trying to do?

The Silva appointment seems to have put them off even attempting something with a touch of flair since but much like Gary Neville’s flawed argument in terms of big-name managers at Manchester United, just because something didn’t work in the past doesn’t mean you stop trying in the future.

Everton have lost on expected goals in each of their last seven matches, a run which has seen them collect one point, and the pressure is understandably growing on former Liverpool boss Benitez, who should never have been appointed in the first place.

Sacking him now would probably be an ever bigger mistake given the team could quickly slip into a relegation battle and face fixtures again Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester before Christmas.

However, assuming they don’t go down, Everton need a proper re-set in the summer. They need to stop focusing on names and reputations and paying a premium for players and managers who have Real Madrid or Barcelona on their CV.

There is a reason those are no longer wanted by elite clubs. Look for the next James Rodriguez, not the washed-up one, otherwise the Merseyslide will continue.

Borussia Dortmund are the masters of transfer dealings and it is to their enormous credit they are only one point behind Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich heading into Der Klassiker.

A sparse crowd due to Covid restrictions won’t help Dortmund, who have lost eight of their last ten against Bayern anyway and arguably lack the defensive qualities to keep the visitors at bay.

According to fbref.com there is a 1.46 expected goal difference per 90 minutes between Bayern and Dortmund, which suggests it won’t be long before the Munich outfit begin to extend their advantage.

‘A restricted crowd due to Covid won’t help Dortmund, who have lost eight of their last ten against Bayern anyway’

BEST BET Bayern Munich 1pt 4-5 general