Racing Post

La Viola may incur wrath of the referee

BET365 may have underestimated the chance of Fiorentina receiving most cards in their Serie A game at Bologna tomorrow.

Back Fiorentina 0 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to the fractional price of 19-20.

Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Fiorentina’s total is higher than Bologna’s the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if Bologna’s total is higher than Fiorentina’s the bet will lose.

Both teams have started the season well. They are level on 24 points, although Fiorentina boast a superior goal difference and are in sixth while Bologna are in eight.

Bookmakers nonetheless regard Fiorentina as a better team, and they are probably right to do so. Fiorentina’s budget is bigger, and over time that tends to count. Result-related markets imply a 34 per cent chance of a home win, a 29 per cent chance of a draw and a 37 per chance of an away win.

In previous seasons in Serie A games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the away team receiving most cards would not usually have been as big as 19-20. Should they be today? Possibly not.

Bologna have received a lot of cards this season, but so have their opponents. This season, and in the previous two and a half season when they were coached by Sinisa Mihajlovic, Bologna’s cards for and against have been in the sort of ratio we should have anticipated from the goals they have scored and conceded.

In other words, there has been nothing conspicuously unusual about Bologna’s cards in relationship to their opponents’ cards, though the combined totals for both teams have tended to be high.

Fiorentina this season have also received a large number of cards but so too have their opponents. In previous seasons the totals were not so high. In previous seasons, though, the relationship between cards for Fiorentina and their opponents was pretty much what we should have anticipated from the goals they scored and conceded.

Any outcome is possible in this market, as in any other. But it is arguable that the chance of Fiorentina receiving most cards may be higher than bet365 suggest.

BEST BET Fiorentina 0 Asian handicap cards v Bologna 1pt 19-20 bet365

EUROPEAN LEAGUES

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2021-12-04T08:00:00.0000000Z

2021-12-04T08:00:00.0000000Z

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