Le Breuil appeals as likely sort to take top billing in Becher Chase

Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices’ Chase 1.50 Sandown Key trends

●No older than six, ten winners in last ten runnings

●Won last time out over fences in the past month, 8/10

●Adjusted RPR of at least 156, 8/10

●Rated within 9lb of RPR toprated, 8/10 (three were toprated)

●Ran to an RPR of at least 143 over hurdles, 7/10

Other factors

Four ran over hurdles at that year’s Cheltenham Festival (form figures 1163 in various races). Two ran over hurdles at the Aintree meeting (20).

The two winners not to have won last time out both finished second in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

The seven four-year-olds to have run finished 2524123.

Verdict

This looks quite competitive given that all bar Do Your Job meet trends related to adjusted RPR. Having said that, likely favourite Third Time Lucki gets the vote having won both starts over fences, including a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time, while his hurdling form was of a sufficient standard. Edwardstone is older than ideal, but is solid otherwise on the trends and is the main danger ahead of Il Ridoto, who is still something of an unknown quantity following his arrival from France.

Betfair Tingle Creek Chase 2.25 Sandown Key trends

●Rated within 8lb of RPR toprated, 10/10

●Adjusted RPR of at least 173, 9/10 ●Winner of a Graded chase over 2m, 9/10

●From the first three in the betting, 9/10

●No older than eight, 7/10

●Already a Grade 1 winner, 7/10

●Ran in the past month, 6/10

Other factors

Six winners ran in the Champion Chase in March, finishing 114211.

Four winners had run in novice events the previous season.

Six winners were RPR toprated.

Verdict

Older than ideal at nine, Chacun Pour Soi may prove vulnerable on his reappearance. Nube Negra is the obvious one to oppose him with, but he has yet to strike at the highest level and the only one to hit all trends is

Greaneteen. He doesn’t have much to find on adjusted RPRs, nor on last season’s Champion Chase form with the front two in the market. A course-and-distance winner, he was runner-up in this last year and is the one who has shown this track clearly suits.

Unibet Becher Handicap Chase 2.40 Aintree Key trends

●Won a chase at Class 1 or 2 level, 10/10

●Ran at least 13 times over fences, 9/10

●Previous experience of National fences, 9/10

●Won over at least 3m, 9/10

●Had run that season, 8/10

●Aged nine or older, 7/10 (three exceptions in last five years)

Other factors

Three winners had failed to complete on their latest start (two pulled up, one unseated). Only three of the other seven managed a top-three finish.

Verdict

Vieux Lion Rouge, Kimberlite Candy and Le Breuil were the first three home last year and, as they all best fit the trends, look the trio to concentrate on. Vieux Lion Rouge bids to land the prize for a third time, but the placed horses are younger and better off at the weights with preference for Le Breuil, who would probably have finished a lot closer last year but for being ridden too aggressively and making a bad blunder four out. Chris’s Dream and Hogan’s Height aren’t assured on the stamina front but have nice profiles, while the interesting one at bigger odds is Via Dolorosa – a recent French import who fares quite well on the trends.