Racing Post

Pricewise and Paul Kealy with all the day’s best bets,

Paul Keal

A BLANK sheet of paper is required for the final day at Royal Ascot as conditions are considerably different to what was expected after the track, which missed most of the forecast rain on Wednesday night, took on considerably more than was forecast yesterday.

I had quite a few ante-post bets earlier in the week based on the assumption the ground would be not much worse than good, so it’s fair to say I will not be applying for a job as a meteorologist any time soon.

Let’s hope the tipping is better, although I’ll quickly swerve the Chesham Stakes (2.30) which features a red-hot favourite and too many unknowns given the conditions.

The Jersey Stakes (3.05) is much more like it as there seems to be a forgotten horse in the race in the shape of Mandate, who is making his seasonal reappearance.

He was a really progressive juvenile for Ralph Beckett last season, graduating from winning a nursery off a mark of 81 to taking the Group 2 Royal Lodge, which he did in impressive fashion over a mile despite racing keenly early.

His failure to fire at the Breeders’ Cup can be safely ignored, and while this is his first run of the season, there was no need to rush him into a Guineas campaign as he’s a gelding.

New Mandate has no form on soft ground, but his two opening defeats last term came on the quickest surface he raced on, and he is by French Derby winner New

Bay, who won Group races on soft and heavy ground, so there’s a chance he’ll like it.

Add the fact trainer Ralph Beckett could have had any number of jockeys he regularly uses in Britain but has booked Irish champion Colin Keane – as good as any jockey around in Europe – and we have plenty of reasons for a bet at a decent price.

As with many of the races, the market for the Hardwicke Stakes (3.40) looks markedly different now than it did when the declarations were made, and now we have to decide whether the revised markets are correct or have gone overboard.

Wonderful Tonight is a case in point. A 12-1 shot at confirmation time, David Menuisier’s filly is closing in on favouritism, which is understandable given she won two Group 1s on soft or heavy ground last October, including the Champion Fillies & Mares over course and distance.

She certainly has some of, if not the best soft-ground form around, but she’s far from the only one and Albaflora might have been a little overlooked following a sub-par fourth in the Coronation Cup at Epsom last time.

The ground may not have been soft enough for her there and she might not have handled the track, and neither of those concerns will apply at Ascot as she stormed home by seven lengths over course and distance in soft ground on her return last month, which was her second excellent effort at Ascot on a deep surface.

That was only a Listed race, but the runner-up won a softground Group 3 next time and the fifth also won in Listed company.

It is no surprise to see Dream Of Dreams elevated to favouritism for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (4.20) given his form at this time of year, and he could easily make it thirdtime lucky in this race having been second for the last two years.

He has flopped three times on soft ground here on Champions Day, but he won the Sprint Cup on soft at Haydock last season and it’s more likely the time of year is responsible for his course failures as he has run well here on a deep surface before.

With some of the other principals far from proven in the conditions, he’s the obvious jolly, but I’m in no mood to bet at short odds after all that rain and will be giving Happy Power another chance to prove he can hack it down in trip.

It didn’t work for him when he ran in the Champions

Sprint last season, but he was sent off at a single-figure price after hacking up in the 7f Challenge Stakes at

Newmarket and the race, which took place just eight days later, might well have come too soon.

Attempts at a mile certainly need to be shelved as Happy Power has proved far too keen on both his runs this season behind Palace Pier, although he performed best of the prominent racers when fifth in the Lockinge at Newbury.

This sort of ground is very much his thing and he finished sixth of 16 in the QEII on heavy here in 2019 despite palpably failing to stay.

It’s no great surprise to see King’s Lynn as a short-priced favourite for the Wokingham (5.00) as he’s 7lb well in for his Haydock success last month and arguably more now given he might have finished as close as second in the King’s Stand with a clear run on Tuesday.

He can certainly win if that effort has not taken its toll, but I’m not about backing 4-1 shots in big fields in a bog and it’s a couple of outsiders for me.

I narrowed it down to three potential bets in the end, but kicked out Snazzy Jazzy at the last minute as he has not run this season and carries top weight.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Laura Pearson got a good tune out of him, and his record at shorter than 7f on soft ground is superb, but it’s Air Raid and Ropey Guest for me.

Air Raid travelled well for a long way in a fair race at Haydock on his return last month, eventually finishing eighth of 16 on good to soft.

When the ground has been soft or worse his form figures read 11181100, and he’s only 2lb higher than when winning the Scottish Stewards’ Cup at Hamilton in 2019 and a heavyground contest at Haydock last year.

With the extra places available (six with most firms, seven with Sky Bet and Paddy Power), he’s worth a small each-way play, as is Ropey Guest.

He drops down from 7f having finished only 12th in the Buckingham Palace on Thursday, although he was beaten only a couple of lengths on his side.

He’s not a prolific winner, having taken just a weak allweather novice from 17 starts, but he’s been fourth in a Jersey here and sixth in a Victoria Cup, both on soft ground, and a helter-skelter gallop back at 6f might just suit.

Bet of the day could well prove to be Pythagoras in the Golden Gates Stakes (5.35) as you could argue a case for making him nearer favourite.

He has run in two Derby trials this season and nothing went right for him in the

Dante, when he was keen at the back and well out of his ground when the pace quickened, but he surged through half the field before his efforts took their toll and he dropped back to sixth.

He shaped with considerably more promise than the result and connections clearly still believe in him as if the rain had come earlier he’d have taken on Mohaafeth in the Hampton Court on Wednesday.

It didn’t so instead

Pythagoras runs in this handicap off a mark of 101 and, with the ground now very much in his favour, he has to be backed.

Finally, Falcon Eight looks a worthy favourite in the closing Queen Alexandra Stakes

(6.10), but Stag Horn surely has to be considered with the ground as it is.

A rapid improver last year, he won by wide margins both times he encountered soft ground or worse, on the second occasion slamming last year’s neck runner-up The Grand Visir (also won 2019 Ascot Stakes) by nine lengths over 2m2f at Pontefract.

He shaped okay on ground much too fast behind Stradivarius in the Sagaro

Stakes last month and he’ll be in his element this time.

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