There is a tendency to overreact to strong early performances

THERE is a moment early in the group stage of many tournaments when a team win a game with a spellbinding display. Everyone says: “We have just seen the champions.” Then, a few weeks later, another team lift the trophy.

Do not get carried away by one or two performances.

Bookmakers in some instances will make big changes to odds for the second round of fixtures after the first round, and to the third round after the second. These movements can be too large, too small or about right. In my opinion, they are more likely to go too far than not far enough.

Football is a game of skill and luck, and results can mislead us into mistaking some or all of the luck for skill.

In the group stage at the last World Cup, Japan beat Colombia who then beat Poland who then beat Japan. Mexico beat Germany who then beat Sweden who then beat Mexico.

How often has this sort of thing happened? How often in the group stage of a World Cup have Team A beaten Team B who then beat Team C who then beat Team A?

If results were determined entirely by skill it should never happen. If results were determined entirely by luck it should happen in five per cent of all possible sequences.

Let me explain that figure.

I studied the group stages of the last 14 World Cups, from 1966 to 2018. Twenty-six per cent of games were drawn. If results were determined wholly by luck there would be, in every game, a 26 per cent chance of a draw, a 37 per cent chance of a win for this team and a 37 per cent chance of a win for that team.

The chance of Team A beating Team B, then Team B beating Team C, then Team C beating Team A, would be 37 per cent multiplied by 37 per cent multiplied by 37 per cent, which is five per cent.

How often did it happen? It happened in five per cent of all threegame sequences.

The data suggests the results of World Cup group fixtures are decided entirely by luck. I suspect it overstates the reality.

There is some evidence that a repeat world champion is more likely than a debut world champion, which implies enduring disparities in skill that make a difference. And there can be complicating factors in the last round of group games. If Team A beat Team B and then beat Team D they might have qualified for the knockout stage already and field 11 reserves against Team C, who could need to win to go through.

The conclusion I reach is that results are determined by a combination of skill and luck – and in the group stage of a World Cup there can be more random good or bad fortune than some of us acknowledge.