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Debutants will hope to make the most of home advantage

WHO will benefit from conditions in Qatar? Presumably Qatar. Hosts generally do better at their World Cup than at others. Qatar have not played in the World Cup before, but they are likely to perform more impressively than they might if they qualify for 2026 and go to North America.

Other countries could profit as well, though, and still more could suffer.

There are two types of advantage discernible in the results of past World Cups – home country advantage and home continent advantage.

So Iran and Saudi Arabia might reach a higher level than they would have done otherwise. Maybe even

Japan and South Korea, though they are a long way, and not only geographically, from Qatar.

I studied results from the last ten World Cups – 1982 to 2018. There were five in Europe and five outside Europe. I ignored any game involving a host and all games between countries from the same continent.

European countries scored 64 per cent of the goals in their games when the tournament was in Europe and 57 per cent when it was outside Europe. They fared better on their own continent than elsewhere.

The most successful countries in the history of the World Cup have been those from Europe and South America. I studied games between them over a longer period, the last 14 World Cups, 1966 to 2018. There were seven in Europe and seven outside Europe – two in South America, two in North America, one in Asia and one in Africa. I applied the same conditions as before.

When European countries played South America countries, results were even: each won as many games as the other and scored as many goals – no more and no less.

But outcomes varied with the venue. On their own continent European countries scored 56 per cent of the goals. In South and North

America it was 40 per cent. On their own continent European countries won 45 per cent of games, drew 29 per cent and lost 26 per cent. In South and North America they won 23 per cent, drew 28 per cent and lost 49 per cent.

When they played each other, European countries did better in Europe and South American countries did better in the Americas.

Only twice before has a World Cup been staged outside Europe and the Americas – in Japan and South Korea in 2002 and in South Africa in 2010. This is not much to go on, but in those tournaments the results of games between Europe and South America were pretty even again.

This year the World Cup will be staged in Asia for the second time and on its Arabian Peninsula for the first time. European and South American countries will be disadvantaged by playing away from familiar surroundings – but, perhaps surprisingly, it is possible they will be disadvantaged by the same amount.

i‘ othe‘ . Iran and Saudi Arabia might reach ai . higher level than they would have donei rwise. Maybe even Japan and South Korea.

WORLD CUP 2022 ANALYSIS

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2022-11-17T08:00:00.0000000Z

2022-11-17T08:00:00.0000000Z

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