Oppose warm favourite Aldaary and back Jumby

THERE’S always a lull in the action in the two weeks running up to Royal Ascot and it’s fair to say Saturday’s ITVtelevised fare from Haydock and Beverley makes it one of the weakest weekends of action.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t bets to be had, of course, and despite only nine runners at the five-day stage the Group 3 John of Gaunt Stakes is actually one of the most fascinating betting heats.

That’s because the bookmakers have made the long-absent mudlark Aldaary a short-priced favourite and there has to be a chance he won’t show up at all.

You have to balance the possibility of a no-show with the knowledge that Haydock had massively overwatered the track for the Temple Stakes meeting just a couple of weeks ago and that the ground there, officially good to firm, good in places for the three days, was actually no quicker than good on two of the days and arguably good to soft on the middle day.

Whether Haydock will have learned from that remains to be seen as there was 30mm put down from Friday to Monday and there will no doubt be more with a dry forecast, but the course was still calling the ground good to firm on Tuesday.

Whatever the case, the surface is highly unlikely to be anywhere near as soft as Aldaary wants it. His form figures on ground slower than good read 1113111 compared to 557 on good to firm.

Those three defeats came in bigfield handicaps and Aldaary ran with credit in all of them, but on Racing

Post Ratings his best run on such a surface is just under a stone worse than his best when the ground is deep.

Add the fact that he has obviously had problems, having run only once since October 2021 (winning a weak soft-ground Listed race at Haydock in May last year) and you wonder whether connections will think twice about risking him if they’re not happy with the surface.

Second favourite Angel Bleu is the obvious one, having won in Listed company over course and distance last time out, but it’s questionable what he actually achieved as the runner-up was rated only 94 at the time and couldn’t confirm all of his improvement when beaten in Listed company at Epsom on Friday.

Angel Bleu was a dual Group 1 winner as a juvenile, but both times on very deep ground, and while he won’t be quite so inconvenienced by a faster surface, it’s a minor negative.

Of the others, El Caballo showed very little on his final start on good to firm as a three-year-old and even less on his return on soft at Newmarket, so there has to be a question mark over him, while Aussie raider The Astrologist is nowhere near among his country’s best sprinters (has won at 7f ) and needs to do a lot more than when only seventh of ten in the Duke of York.

Therefore, by process of elimination the bet has to be Jumby for in-form Eve Johnson Houghton, who landed two winners at the Derby meeting.

Admittedly with form figures of 50 this season, the five-year-old has a bit to prove himself, but the first was on a drop to 6f for the first time in nearly a year in the Abernant at Newmarket, where he missed the kick and lost plenty of ground at the start, so it was no disgrace to be beaten just under three lengths.

After that Jumby was upped in trip and grade in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, and his 11th of 12 there is a run I’m perfectly happy to ignore as he was way too keen in the early stages and clearly failed to stay the trip.

On his peak form at 7f, a Group 2 Hungerford Stakes win on quick ground last summer at Newbury for which he is unpenalised, he’s right up there with the best of these.

He does need to prove himself on a turning track and a steady pace would be a worry for one who can be keen, but both El Caballo and The Wizard Of Eye can go on, and there’s no horse I’d rather back in the race.