Like any sports stars, jockeys can ride high on confidence

The top tipster with his unique takes on the racing world

JOCKEYSHIP is clearly an important factor in deciding the outcome of a race, and that was evident again at Epsom over the weekend when Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore stole the show on consecutive days. But why is it that they were able to dominate the Group 1 races?

Many would argue they were simply riding the best horses and it’s hard to prove them wrong. After all, Emily Upjohn, Soul Sister and Auguste Rodin were all towards the head of the markets for their respective races, but Dettori and Moore still had to get them home in front.

What role the rider’s individual skill played in each horse’s success is hard to quantify, but could there be something other than their riding ability that helped their mounts get on top?

Confidence, for example, has a huge role to play in performance in almost every other sport but it is rarely mentioned with regard to horseracing. And, if it is, it usually refers to the confidence of a horse, not the rider. But jockeys are just like any other sportsmen and women.

Dettori, in particular, is a jockey who seems to be able to hit hot streaks. When he rides one winner he often bangs in three or four more and we saw that famously with his Magnificent Seven at Ascot in 1996.

Maybe he was just riding the best horse in every race, but it’s highly unlikely and Dettori’s confidence appeared to be filtering through to his mounts, elevating their performance as well.

It almost happened at Ascot again for Dettori on Gold Cup day in 2019 when he rode the first four winners and then beat all bar one of his 27 rivals on Turgenev in the Britannia Stakes. His four-timer paid odds of 449-1, so it’s hard to argue he was on the best horse in every race.

Moore has also been known to get hot. Who could forget last season’s Chester May meeting when he scored on eight of his 11 rides at the meeting, including a superb effort to land the Chester Cup on Cleveland when he weaved through the field to beat the class act Coltrane.

Coltrane was racing off a mark of 95 that day and is now rated 117, so Cleveland definitely wasn’t the best horse in the race at the weights, but Moore’s magic got him home in front.

Recently I’ve noticed a trend of jockeys hitting hot streaks and following one win with another. For example, I was at Newmarket three weeks ago when Harry Davies rode a treble, and Oisin Murphy had a 50-1 double in back-to-back races at Goodwood a week last Friday.

Returning to Dettori and Moore, both have done similar recently. Take a look at Dettori’s rides in the last two weeks and you’ll see that on two of the three days when he rode a winner he followed up with another victory on his very next ride. And it’s a similar story for Moore.

THE last four times that Moore has ridden more than one horse on a day and had a winner, he has followed up with at least one more later on the card, registering three doubles and a four-timer in that sequence. The fact his confidence is high has improved the horses he rode.

That’s not easy to prove statistically, but it appears that when certain jockeys boot home a winner it increases the likelihood of their next one winning too and that isn’t always reflected in the betting. It is often only after three or four winners that markets are affected.

It’s always important to sense-check your hunches. In other words, ask yourself the question of whether it would make sense for a jockey’s confidence to affect the performance of the horse they are riding? So I did a bit of research on Google and it certainly seems possible.

I found several articles arguing that horses are sentient beings and are therefore capable of feeling similar emotions to humans beings. They are likely able to sense their rider’s confidence.

A slow horse still isn’t going to beat a naturally faster one no matter how hot their rider, but if footballers score more goals when they are high on confidence and golfers make more putts, then it seems highly likely that a horse with a high-flying jockey could perform better as well.

In a sport where the margins are often thin, a jockey on a roll might be able to coax the extra one or two per cent that could make the difference between victory and defeat. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the rider who won the last race when assessing the next one in future.

Ugo Gregory a Beverley beauty

BEVERLEY plays host to ITV4 on Saturday for Hilary Needler day and juvenile events take centre stage. However, there isn’t much form to go on in those races and it’s worth swerving them and concentrating on the bet365 Handicap (2.40), where Ugo Gregory is a strong fancy.

Ugo Gregory has recorded three of his last four wins over course and distance and has run three solid races at the track on his last three starts without winning, twice over 1m½f.

That trip stretches his stamina and the money came for him on his return to this 7½f last week. He went off 3-1 favourite and only narrowly failed to see it out after making most, being run down near the line by Cliffcake to lose out by a nose, with the front three clear.

That race was run in a sound time for the grade and a reproduction should be good enough.

They also race at Beverley on Sunday and Pons Aelius is an interesting runner in the Sky Bet Sunday Series Stayers Handicap (4.45) following his good second at Chester last month.

The four-year-old has done most of his winning on the all-weather and has no form at Beverley, but he has yet to run at the track and it’s worth giving him a chance to prove he can handle the turning undulations as he had no issues with the tight turns at the Roodee last time.

Pons Aelius was beaten just a head by Scottish Dancer, who has franked the form by scoring again since. The front three pulled six lengths clear of the rest in a good time for a Class 5.

There should be more to come from Pons Aelius on turf and he can go one better this time.