No sweat for Soi to prosper in Tingle Test

Chacun can defy absence

The one possible weak link in the armour of likely favourite Chacun Pour Soi is that he has not been seen since the Punchestown Festival in April, and therefore has to defy an absence of 221 days.

It would not be the perfect preparation and even the prolific Un De Sceaux, also trained by Willie Mullins, could not win this two years ago on his first sighting since Punchestown.

Surprisingly, given there are so few suitable stepping stones to Sandown, seven of the last ten winners showed the benefit of a run and six had raced within the previous month. Sprinter Sacre, Altior and Politologue were the exceptions.

However, what swings the pendulum back in favour of Chacun Pour Soi is that the five horses who were favourite since 2008 when off the track for at least 174 days all won. Thirteen others have failed during this period (finishing F542339F42236), but some were outsiders and only six went off at 6-1 or shorter.

His doubters may also question that he was beaten on his only previous visit to Britain when third in last season’s Champion Chase. For all that this is true, he was still beaten under two lengths despite failing to produce his explosive best and Mullins remains adamant that he was not himself in March.

Champion clues

It is rare for the winner not to have been seriously involved at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival, with the title decider and the Arkle the races on which to focus.

Only five winners since 1999 were not a two-mile champion at some stage during their career, and 12 of the last 18 winners contested the Champion Chase the previous March, with all those to complete the course recording a top-four finish.

The winner Put The Kettle On may be missing, but Nube Negra finished second and was closely followed by Chacun Pour Soi and Greaneteen.

That piece of form would suggest that Nube Negra is the biggest danger on Saturday to Chacun Pour Soi and especially when he has the benefit of a run, having won at Cheltenham’s November meeting. However, his lack of honours at the highest level counts as a major negative for

Dan Skelton’s runner when seven of the last ten winners had the ’t-shirt’.

It takes an exceptional second-season chaser to triumph in this race and, while the Arkle winner Shishkin may have been up to the task, it’s unlikely that Captain Guinness, Hitman and Cheddleton will be.

Verdict

An on-song Chacun Pour Soi will take the world of beating and, while a prep race would have been preferred, the really good two-milers tend to deliver regardless.

And when Grade 1s over this trip are so few and far between, you can bet that Willie Mullins will have him fit

enough to do himself justice.

He travels strongly and is a superb jumper, attributes needed around Sandown.

As a course winner at the highest level, Greaneteen appeals as the main threat.