Play a straight bat in the Hardwicke and side with Hukum

WEDNESDAY Get stuck into Brunch

The big betting race on day two is the Royal Hunt Cup and, with only three favourites obliging since 1980, this is one tough puzzle.

Punters keep falling into the same trap when rule number one is to focus on those prepared for what’s coming. History in races of similar nature is a huge advantage and there’s an edge to be had in preferring experience to potential.

Four-year-olds are the dominant age group with ten wins in 14 years, yet they need to be streetwise as of the last 20 winners, only Royal Oath and Forgotten Voice had raced fewer than eight times. This rules out the Lincoln winner Haqeeqy after only seven runs. Recent winners Field Of Dream, Belgian Bill, Prince Of Johanne and Zhui Feng were loaded with experience.

Such is the nature of this race trainers will target it and plan accordingly. Only two of the last ten winners had raced more than twice earlier in the season and both Field Of Dream and Afaak were having their first sightings in more than 260 days. Any contenders treating this as an afterthought are instantly opposed.

The most inf luential pointers are the Lincoln, the Victoria Cup and the Hambleton Stakes at York. It is crucial to have won a race of at least Class 3 stature and to have won at a mile, with Field Of Dreams and Dark Vision the only winners since 2001 without a distance victor y.

An official mark of 105 is the highest defied in 40 years, which puts paid to those towards the very peak of the handicap, including Haqeeqy.

As for the draw? High numbers are preferred as when Belgian Bill won in 2013, he was the first drawn in single figures since 2001 and, when Portage triumphed from stall four in 2016, the ground was ver y testing.

Brunch, from stall 25, is a very solid option. The Michael Dods-trained four-year-old has only raced 11 times but he knows what these big-field handicaps are all about, and this season alone he has finished runner-up in the Lincoln and the Hambleton. He can become the 11th winner since 1976 to have come out of the latter race staged at York’s Dante meeting.

No knocking North

For the classiest race on day two, that’s the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, which has come on enormously since granted top-level status in 2000. This is now one of the most coveted 1m2f prizes in the world.

All eyes are on the eagerly awaited reappearance of Love, who carried all before her during an unbeaten three-yearold campaign that brought her glory in the 1,000 Guineas, the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. Although Bosra Sham, Ouija Board and The Fugue are the only successful females since Stanerra in 1983, seven of the last 13 to have run finished 1313422.

With Wednesday in mind, the glaring omission on her CV is that she has yet to win at ten furlongs. This race always attracts contenders stepping up and down in distance, but the golden rule is to focus on 1m2f specialists.

Milers get outstayed, while the only recognised 1m4f horses to have triumphed in recent times were Ouija Board, Rewilding and Crystal Ocean.

Duke Of Marmalade and Poet’s Word later won the King George, yet both were at their brilliant best at this trip.

Although Love has Classic honours at a mile, her best trip must be 1m4f and it’s at that distance she is likely to be campaigned after Ascot.

Love’s stablemate Armory also needs opposing when he has come up short in his seven previous races at the highest level.

Only six winners since 2000 lacked Group 1 honours, though offering some comfort is that four were placed at that level.

Lord North will take a lot of beating. He had no right to win this 12 months ago on the back of a Group 3 victory and yet he is now an established top-level performer returning to defend his crown after a most taking victory at Meydan in March. He can become the fourth dual winner of the race, emulating Connaught, Mtoto and Muhtarram.

Kyprios could be interesting in the Queen’s Vase. He was fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial that produced Epsom hero Adayar and five winners since 2002 finished 22334 in that Listed affair. And, as a brother to the Chester Cup winner Falcon Eight, this son of Galileo has the right pedigree to improve for the step up in distance.

THURSDAY Four-timer on the cards

The Ascot Gold Cup dates back to 1807. It remains the most prestigious race of the week and a unique one at that, with the distance of 2m4f providing a thorough examination that few contenders will have experienced before. It is no great wonder that 11 horses have won this more than once since the 1960s.

Stradivarius is the obvious starting point. He is already a titan of the division having won three of these, but four would take him level with the only four-time winner, Yeats.

Given his achievements in the race already, it’s only natural that John and Thady Gosden’s seven-year-old will be older than your typical winner, yet Yeats was eight when he won his fourth crown and there have been ten Gold Cup winners older than six.

He is about the only horse in the field guaranteed to be at his absolute best over this marathon trip and he looked as good as ever in winning the Sagaro Stakes, which is back in vogue as a key trial.

Punters seeking an each-way alternative are pointed in the direction of Subjectivist ahead of the older Trueshan.

Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine runnings and nine winners in 11 years were contesting their first Gold Cup.

He’s a Group winner, in keeping with nine of the last ten winners, and six of those had struck at Group 1 level, as he did in France last October.

Had Stradivarius not been on the scene, he would have merited the call with some confidence.

Noon to star

The Ribblesdale Stakes has established some cast-iron trends down the years and there’s a clear message to rely on a late developer.

It has become rare for winners to be highly tried during their juvenile seasons, with Banimpire the only winner in the last decade to have raced more than three times as a twoyear-old.

Thirteen of the last 17 winners had won over 1m2f+ and the Oaks trials are historically inf luential.

The big race itself – represented by third-placed Divinely and the well beaten Dubai Fountain – has naturally had a bearing down the years.

Six winners came from Epsom between 1980 and 2004 (finishing 584203), as have Michita (7th), Coronet (5th) and Magic Wand (4th) subsequently.

The percentage call is to side with an improving filly who has not been so highly tried and Sir Michael Stoute’s superbly bred Noon Star brings solid credentials following her second to impressive Oaks heroine Snowfall in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at York.

Stoute, renowned for his patience, has won this in the past with Sally Brown, Hellenic and Spanish Sun, while he has also recently gone close with Queen’s Trust, Mori and Sun Maiden.

Summa loving

The Britannia is all about siding with a lightly raced improver with handicap experience and winning form at a mile.

The 2019 winner Biometric was a rare winner to come straight out of novice company and with no history at the trip.

Twelve of the last 13 winners had raced no more than six times, with seven of the last nine having had fewer than five starts.

Last year’s winner Khaloosy was particularly light on experience after only the two. And the last of those runs needs to be positive as eight of the last ten winners and finished first or second. One of the exceptions had contested the French Derby.

Look down the weights as 12 of the last 13 winners were rated no higher than 96 and only two winners this century carried more than 9st 2lb. From a draw perspective, winners have emerged from all over the shop but there’s probably an advantage to be had by being either very high or very low.

Summa Peto has looked an improved horse in winning both his starts this season and he can go well at a price for Keith Dalgleish.

Rosstafarian to rule

When Hawkbill prevailed in the 2016 Hampton Court Stakes he became the seventh winner in 11 years to have captured a handicap beforehand, but this trend appears to be on the wane and recent winners didn’t go near a handicap.

The dilemma is whether to side with an improver who has been winning in lesser company or go with a horse well beaten last time out at Pattern level, a policy that would have revealed the last four winners. Two were downgraded from Group 1s.

If that pattern continues it could be through The Rosstafarian, who was by no means disgraced in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Mohaafeth would have run in the Derby had the weather not turned but he has been well found in the market.

Put faith in Johnston

The King George V Stakes is always a fascinating affair packed with unexposed threeyear-old handicappers open to improvement for the step up to 1m4f. This appears the key as only two of the last ten winners boasted victories at the trip.

Weight can be a dealbreaker, with only one of the last ten winners carrying more than 9st 1lb.

As a rule, it pays to focus on a handicap winner. Hukum was making his handicap debut 12 months ago but due to Covid there was little three-year-old form to go on, and eight of the previous ten winners had landed a handicap.

Mark Johnston’s runners always merit a second glance with six winners to his name since 1995 but his two runners have already declared their hand over this trip. The one to be with is Suref ire, who recently impressed on his handicap debut over 1m2f at Leicester.

FRIDAY Mother’s Coronation

Classic form usually holds the key in the Coronation Stakes and this year’s renewal brings together the winners of the English and Irish 1,000 Guineas, namely Mother Earth and Empress Josephine.

Aidan O’Brien’s stablemates make more appeal than their market rival Primo Bacio, who is raised in class after winning a Listed race. Last year’s winner Alpine Star was making her seasonal reappearance but 19 of the previous 20 winners had run in a Group 1 that year.

Mother Earth would be the sixth Newmarket winner to triumph during this period, emulating Russian Rhythm, Attraction, Ghanaati, Sky Lantern and Winter, and

Newmarket form tends to stand true at Ascot. Ten of the last 19 winners finished 1120561171 on the Rowley Mile.

Mother Earth went on to finish a close second in the French 1,000 Guineas and beaten horses from that Classic have a superior record at Ascot to its winners. Two years ago, Watch Me became the eighth filly to be beaten at Chantilly before winning here since 1989.

Winners of the Irish 1,000 Guineas have less recovery time and this is perhaps a reason for their mixed record. Although 11 have achieved the Curragh/ Ascot double since 1980, four of the last eight to have tried failed to make the frame.

Side with a slow burner

As with its sister race, winners of the King Edward VII

Stakes are often late developers. It says everything that only two winners since 2004 were considered good enough to contest a Group race at two.

The progress made by some winners from the beginning of the season was little short of remarkable, with eight of the last 18 graduating through the handicap ranks. And when the winner is not a sharp improver he tends to be dangerously unexposed, with two of the last seven winners having raced only twice.

However, the last winner to come directly from a maiden (or novice) was Clive Brittain’s Amfortas in 1996 and before him the Dick Hern-trained Open Day in 1982.

Seven of the last ten winners contested a recognised Derby trial – two successful – and the main event will naturally produce winners. Japan became the 13th beaten at Epsom since 1970 (finishing 445063UR50003), and the fifth in the last two decades.

Gear Up could bounce back from his disappointing run at Epsom but Alenquer is the best option after f looring subsequent Derby winner Adayar in the Classic Trial at Sandown.

SATURDAY

Dream a Diamond bet

The only Group 1 on the closing day is the Diamond

Jubilee Stakes, a race upgraded to such status in 2002.

The trends are therefore still developing and have taken a further twist since three-yearolds were barred in 2015. The 2018 winner Merchant Navy is listed as a three-year-old by some media but was only classed at that age in the southern hemisphere.

Preference is for a proven Group performer with strong Ascot form and the latter requirement rules out market leader Starman.

Ed Walker’s four-year-old ran poorly on his only previous visit to the Berkshire track last October, on what was also his only previous run at the top level.

Twelve of the last 14 winners had won a 6f Group race and 11 of the last 21 (discounting the York renewal) had registered a top-four finish at this meeting.

Starman has headed the betting since his Duke of York success, but when only four of the last 17 winners had won their prep race it could be argued that early-season form can get overrated.

Furthermore, the seven winners to have come from York during this period were all beaten on the Knavesmire and no horse has done the double since Royal Applause in 1997.

This has been a good race for older horses and the sevenyear-olds Dream Of Dreams and Cape Byron have solid claims with their excellent course records. Narrow preference is for last year’s runner-up.

Young guns to rule

The Wokingham is a young horse’s race. The 2017 winner Out Do (at eight) became the first winner older than six since Selhurstpark Flyer in 1998 and only two six-year-olds have triumphed in this period.

The other significant trend is that winners are often lightly raced that season, which is rarely the case with sprint handicappers. The 2013 winner York Glory was an exception on his eighth start, but more than four is too many these days.

Last year’s winner Hey Jonesy became the 12th winner in 13 years to have had at least 11 career starts and siding with a lightly raced contender can prove costly. Dreamfield was an expensive failure at 2-1 when having only his fourth race in 2018.

A positive performance last time out is essential when 19 of the last 25 winners finished in the top three and four of the exceptions were in the top six, two at Pattern level. However, with penalties not welcomed market leader, Kings Lynn can be taken on.

Big weights are no longer feared and seven of the last nine winners were rated in the 100s. Both exceptions were on 99. Winning form at 6f is essential and six of the last ten winners had either won or been placed in a field of at least 18 runners.

The one with the best credentials is Pendleton.

Hukum’s Hardwicke

It usually pays to play a straight bat in the Hardwicke

Stakes, in which some simple but solid trends should be adhered to.

The last winner lacking successful form at Group level was Sandmason in 2001, which immediately rules out Highest Ground.

Against likely favourite Broome is that he lacks winning form at 1m4f. This is inexcusable, with Await The Dawn and Fanny Logan the only recent exceptions and they won ordinary renewals. He is also a five-year-old and the selection has to be aged four when this age group has provided 12 of the last 13 winners. This also counts against Logician.

Fanny Logan became the first successful female since Stanerra in 1983.

Hukum is hard to fault, and he has course and distance honours at the

Royal meeting.

Mutasaabeq to bounce back

Creative Force is favourite for the Jersey Stakes, yet with his last two wins coming in handicap and Listed company he must be opposed.

It usually makes sense to trust Classic form, with eight of the last ten winners having contested a Guineas of some description before enjoying this drop in class.

The 2,000 Guineas fourth Naval Crown should go well but the seventh-placed

Mutasaabeq (pictured below) was much shorter in the betting at Newmarket and he perhaps failed to give his true running.

Have a saver on Bellosa.

She does lack Group-race experience, but she swerved the Coronation Stakes to wait for this and six fillies were successful between 1982 and 2012.