Trends analysis

Form at this meeting is important for the home team

Following the domination of Australian sprinters around ten years ago, British and Irish contenders have had a better time of late. There have been seven winners for both nations since 2010, and all bar one had run at Royal Ascot previously, with all those recording a topfive finish. Added to that, US raider Lady Aurelia was following up her Queen Mary win from 12 months previous when she took this two years ago.

Another big pointer for British and Irish contenders is the Palace House Stakes. Between 2010 and 2016, as many six of the winners had run in the Newmarket Group 3 with five following up here. Mabs Cross, who was third in the 2018 King’s Stand, won the Palace House for the second year running last month.

One trend which might just be changing is age. Between 2011 and 2015 all the winners were aged six or older.

However the last three years has seen the youngsters to the fore, with Lady Aurelia only the second three-year-old this century to succeed.

Verdict

More evidence is needed than the one start this term for Battaash, and the trends point more towards last year’s winner Blue Point and third-placed Mabs Cross. The Michael Dods-trained mare could just turn around the form from 12 months ago. She’s improved 9lb since then according to official ratings.