Royal Ascot Ultimate Guide - 2019-06-06


Trends analysis



Until 12 months ago 11 consecutive runnings had been won by a horse who had previous winning form at a mile Last year’s 33-1 winner Accidental Agent didn’t just fall short in terms of quality, the success was also his first at the distance. It was a shock result. One pattern which did improve in 2018 was the increased success of four-yearolds. After this contest became a Group 2 in 1984, horses aged four and five have since had the race to themselves and the score stands at 25-8 in favour of the younger generation. In terms of quality we should be looking towards contenders who have won a Group 1 with a Racing Post Rating north of 120, and a decent win record. Indeed, seven of the last nine winners had a career strike-rate of over 60 per cent. Accidental Agent’s success came off the back of a sixthplaced effort in the Lockinge, and the Newbury Group 1 has been the key race to look at, with six of the last ten winners coming from it. Verdict If Barney Roy is back to his best then he could take the beating. He’s the only contender who meets the required standard and his turn of foot was still evident when scoring in France last time. I Can Fly is an each-way alternative. An Aidan O’brien four-year-old, she was sixth in the Lockinge.



The Racing Post

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