Racing Post

Hill to revel in Welsh National

Seven is the magic number as Keith Melrose pinpoints the younger horses who could make a mark in high-end contests this winter

IT WAS around this time last year that the winners of last season’s Ultima and Grand National made their respective debuts over fences. By the spring, it is fairly typical for novices to hold a strong hand in the major handicap chases and predicting those likely to make that step up at this stage is an especially difficult task.

Remember that the improvement which marks out the most progressive handicap chasers is usually mental, rather than physical. The weight-for-age scale, which seeks to track the physical development of the average racehorse, offers nothing in chases beyond April even for five-year-olds. That is before the vast majority of chasers make their debut over fences.

Most young chasers are given a steady education and will take a lot longer than the likes of Corach Rambler and Noble Yeats to show their best. At this point in the season, there are still plenty of chasers who are fancied to have more to give. Here are seven who are expected to emerge as a force in high-end handicaps over the coming months.

Red Rookie

Seven-year-old chestnut gelding

Trainer Emma Lavelle

OR 140 RPR 149

The only one of these to have run in a Grade 1 over fences. That was in the Arkle, when he was sent off at 80-1 and fell at the last while half a dozen lengths behind winner Edwardstone. Notably, were he to meet that rival again in a handicap Red Rookie would be getting 21lb, so it is fair to say he was in the process of running above himself at Cheltenham.

That was no flash in the pan, as some of Red Rookie’s previous performances had also hinted at deep potential. He had subsequent big improvers like Not Available, Amarillo Sky and Brave Seasca behind him when beaten a neck at Chepstow and then fell at Ascot, when too far out to make a serious judgement but still very much in the running.

Red Rookie had a break after winning at Hereford in early January and a similar campaign this winter would be no bad thing, with there being relatively few options in January and February for twomile handicappers. Their division tends to be a bit less competitive than the stayers and Red Rookie can do some serious damage from a mark of 140.

Going preference Wona bumper and novice hurdle on heavy but seems to have been campaigned away from deep ground since

Potential big-race target Grand Annual, Cheltenham, March

✪✪✪✪✪ Dalyotin 6bg

Trainer Rebecca Menzies

OR 124 RPR 127 Rebecca Menzies had something of a breakthrough in the spring, landing a couple of Listed prizes with Fonzerelli and Return Ticket. In 2022-23 she is already more than halfway to last season’s career-best tally of 31 winners, and Dalyotin looks one of her best prospects for further big-race success.

Menzies does not yet get the benefit of top-lot French recruits: Dalyotin was on his 22nd start when he was claimed out of a hurdle race at Compiegne in May 2021. But he is still only six and boasts a good strike-rate over fences. He is four from nine overall, and one from one for Menzies.

That win came at Sedgefield in March, when he was well backed (having gone off 33-1 and 25-1 on his first two starts for the yard) and comfortably accounted for his four rivals. The form did not look all that special at the time, although Dalyotin could hardly have done it more easily and runner-up The King Of May went on to have a fruitful spring.

That race was over 2m5f but, given his age and the relative stamina in his pedigree (his dam is a half-sister to the dam of Don Poli), there is a good chance Dalyotin will progress as he goes up in trip. He may start off in something like the Listed handicap chase at the Charlie Hall meeting, or work up quietly to a big midwinter target.

Going preference Winner on soft and heavy (latter in France). Has twice been withdrawn on ‘unsuitable’ good ground

Potential big-race target Rehearsal Chase, Newcastle, November

✪✪✪✪✪ Scene Not Herd 7bg

Trainer Charlie Longsdon OR 133 RPR 135

Races over hurdles were never going to get the best out of Scene Not Herd. Watching how superbly he jumped on his first three chase starts tells us exactly why, as this is a horse who gains lengths over fences.

Those first three wins all represented quietly strong form. The runners-up were Mille Sussurri, who won off a higher mark later in the season, Luckofthedraw, who had won by 20 lengths the time before, and Minella Trump. The lasttwo. named had won his previous seven and also won his next

It is no wonder that Scene Not Herd went off favourite for a Listed handicap chase at Sandown in March. There he rather fluffed his lines, having not been ridden with quite the same force. A few stuttering errors at the Railway fences did for his chances. That was also his first run in almost three months and he seemed to get tired.

Scene Not Herd was declared for the 3m1f Grade 3 on Grand National day but scratched on the day of the race. It is likely that 3m at lefthanded tracks that suit aggressive tactics will be his ultimate destination. However, if he is kept over shorter in his early starts he is unlikely to be caught out by his jumping. Going preference Has form on soft but races mostly on good/good to soft

Potential big-race target Sky Bet Chase, Doncaster, January

✪✪✪✪✪ Valsheda 7bg Trainer Nicky Henderson OR 129 RPR 137

Identifying the strongest novice handicap chases is an underrated aspect of finding future big-handicap winners. Valsheda ran in two of the most quietly impressive during the second half of last season. He finished second in the first behind Killer Kane, who won a Listed handicap off his revised mark next time, and won the other.

That was at Ffos Las in March, in a steadily run race in which Valsheda easily quickened past the similarly unexposed Jaytee, with another improver left toiling inthird.Itwas not a race that ought to have played to his strengths – he is a strapping son of Milan who is expected to need a stiff test of stamina – so a lot more improvement can be expected.

Valsheda’s mark means he remains eligible for 0-130 handicaps. Frankly, he is miles better than that level but his relatively low starting point gives plenty of options for a practice run before he is asked to compete in top handicaps.

Going preference Has done his winning in the spring and his dam’s biggest win came at the Grand National meeting in April

Potential big-race target Betway Handicap Chase, Aintree, April

✪✪✪✪✪ Revels Hill 7bg Harry Fry 137 143

Trainer

OR RPR

This typical Harry Fry slowburner looks just the type to be put in among the market principals for the Welsh Grand National when ante-post lists are published. He already has a win over 3m4½f to his name, achieved in March when he was only really starting to get going.

His groundwork runs early in the season contained some promise, but it was at Taunton in February and March when Revels Hill really took off. On the first occasion, he did Slate House in a fast finish, no mean feat considering that horse won twice over 2m2f at Kempton in the spring.

Then he beat former Welsh

National runner-up The Two Amigos handsomely during Cheltenham week.

That was again a race with a fast finish, so Revels Hill has not definitively proved that an end-to-end slog at Chepstow in midwinter will be within his reach but he has done more than most chasers of his experience to show he is up to it. Expect Fry to be patient on the way to whatever Revels Hill’s main target turns out to be.

Ask Me Early, who was antepost favourite for last year’s Welsh National, spent his build-up over hurdles.

Going preference Winner on good (over hurdles) and soft, unraced on heavy

Potential big-race target Welsh Grand National, Chepstow, December

✪✪✪✪✪ Into Overdrive 7bg

Trainer Mark Walford

OR 132 RPR 137

Normally a horse who has won their last three, in small-field, end-of-season northern races, would be one to take on early the following season. This unexposed sort is a clear exception, as there are plenty of options to explore in terms of trip and his trainer Mark Walford remains an underrated force.

Into Overdrive’s two halfbrothers, Over To Sam and Diamond Brig, were both staying chasers but it was only on his most recent win at the Perth festival that Into Overdrive had to resort to 3m. Aggressive riding has helped him to unleash his potential and he has been winning with any amount in hand, so do not worry too much about a 20lb rise in the weights since his first chase success.

Walford is on course for his best Flat season and over the summer made up for a slightly quieter jumps campaign in 2021-22. It is felt that only a lack of high-quality material has kept him from landing a big race or two, and last season the likeable Cash To Ash took him fairly close with secondplaced finishes in the

Borders and Lincolshire Nationals.

That sort of race could be Into Overdrive’s destination, but there remains a strong chance he can climb higher still.

Going preference Form on soft, all wins on good to soft. His two half-brothers handled the mud

Potential big-race target Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase, Wetherby, December

✪✪✪✪✪ Major Dundee 7bg

Trainer Alan King

OR 132 RPR 141

While he is a true dualpurpose trainer now, one of Alan King’s major skills remains lining up young chasers for big spring staying handicaps. The only major prize not on his palmares is the Grand National, a race he is said not to be keen on in any case.

Had Major Dundee’s late owner Trevor Hemmings still been around, the pressure to prepare him for Aintree might have been overpowering after his third place in this year’s Scottish equivalent at Ayr. It will be interesting to see what King does with a freer hand.

King was certainly careful not to get to the bottom of Major Dundee before Ayr. He started him over 2m5f at Fakenham and met the qualifying criteria for the Scottish National with the minimum number of runs. Major Dundee acquitted himself well on the big day, finishing 12 lengths clear of the rest behind the Christian Williams-trained pair of Win My Wings and Kitty’s Light.

With just one major test over fences behind him, Major Dundee offers plenty of options this winter. Although he was lined up for a spring marathon last season, he is not slow and acts on soft ground.

King also has a strong recent association with the Classic Chase and Sky Bet Chase, so they might also be considered as targets.

Going preference Winner on good but best form on soft (some form on heavy)

Potential big-race target Classic Chase, Warwick, January

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THE BIG JUMP OFF

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2022-10-17T07:00:00.0000000Z

2022-10-17T07:00:00.0000000Z

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