Racing Post

A Plus Tard sets a high standard

Keith Melrose says last year’s Gold Cup winner will be hard to catch even in a division full of exciting rising stars

IT SPEAKS to the depth in the ante-post list for the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup that Minella Indo can be backed at 40-1.

There is simply no room in the market, even a highly overround ante-post market, for a horse who has finished first and second in the last two runnings amid all the class and potential in the division.

Seasoned fans know to expect Minella Indo being put up as a wise-guy each-way bet at less than half his current odds, once non-runner-no-bet concessions start appearing in the new year.

The hottest ticket in jump racing is one to the Gold Cup and so it should be no surprise that it is always oversubscribed in October.

Few of the 20 or so names ahead of Minella Indo on the list will make it. Many will be shown up, in terms of either ability or stamina.

Some will simply get injured. Others will be rerouted, sometimes so as to give their over-powerful owner or trainer a shot at as many festival races as possible.

In a few cases, Cheltenham will be ignored entirely and other races in a swollen spring programme will be targeted.

The supposed inevitability of the numbers thinning out by March is not to be seen as a downbeat assessment of the season ahead.

Instead, it should be a reminder not to get too hung up on one race, even if it is the greatest horserace in the world, and think instead of the multitude of top-quality staying chases in prospect over the next six months.

Unless you are connected to Minella Indo, that is. His season will be all about Cheltenham.

A Plus Tard

Eight-year-old bay gelding

Trainer Henry de Bromhead

Chase form 21213213212121 (best RPR 184)

Left handed 11213212121

(184)

Right handed 223 (144)

Only three horses – Easter Hero, Arkle and Alverton – have won the Gold Cup by further than A Plus Tard, and none of them sprinted up the hill like he did. Treat yourself, watch it again. That is the level the challengers must reach.

While that performance was the apex of A Plus Tard’s career, something similar had long been threatened, so there is no reason to think he cannot do it again. His previous three runs, off a break of 50 days or more, had yielded progressive Racing Post Ratings of 171, 178 and 180. His Gold Cup figure, 184, makes him the equal of Denman.

Being fresh is seen as the key to A Plus Tard, although his short-head defeat in last season’s Savills Chase was probably less feeling the effects of his canter in the Betfair Chase five weeks earlier and more a rare misjudgement from regular rider Rachael Blackmore.

Expect a similarly light campaign this season – the same three races might be a shade of odds-on – but this is a horse whose every run is now an occasion rather than a mere outing. Galopin Des Champs is not at that level yet.

Going preference Effective on good or softer (unraced on heavy since his French days). ✪✪✪✪✪

Galopin Des Champs

6 bl g

Trainer Willie Mullins

Chase form 11F1 (best RPR 177)

LH 11F (175) RH 1 (177)

It does not really work to compare prodigious novices – the likes of Samcro, Envoi Allen, Shishkin and now Galopin Des Champs. There are no trends to speak of, as they are individual horses and punters should take them as such. We just need to know that hype is usually the enemy of value.

Galopin Des Champs’ first two Grade 1 runs over fences came on cards that allowed reasonable time comparisons. As a result, we know he was miles better than top handicappers the day he won at Leopardstown and was probably similarly superior to Coole Cody, if not quite at Allaho’s level, the day he fell in the Turners at Cheltenham. In those terms, he has achieved more than Samcro or Envoi Allen managed as a novice chaser, acknowledging that he races more aggressively and that lends itself to posting more revealing figures.

What gets people excited about horses like Galopin Des Champs is the potential, but it is probably fair to assume he is precocious to at least some degree. His racing style should help us to figure out his level this season pretty quickly, and if he were to make typical improvement for a horse of his age then maybe he could be as good as Kauto Star. But you would be on firmer ground by warning that he will have to beat one who is as good as Denman, like I have here.

Going preference Acts on soft, unraced on good or firmer. ✪✪✪✪✪

Ahoy Senor

7bg

Trainer Lucinda Russell

Chase form U12121 (best RPR 166)

LH 1121 (166) RH U2 (155) Possibly the most talented staying chaser in Britain but, on last season’s evidence, he will do well to get over 20 fences against top horses without belting at least one of them. His speed is deceptive – twice last season he quickened by about two seconds per furlong up the straight without coming off the bridle – and his engine is there for all to see.

Expect an unusually ambitious campaign for a modern Grade 1 stayer, something that is likely to grow Ahoy Senor’s fanbase. As it stands, the only race in which I am almost certain to back him is in the Aintree Bowl, as his results and racing style suit.

Going preference Acts on soft

and good. ✪✪✪✪ Stattler 7 br g ✪

Trainer Willie Mullins

Chase form 111 (best RPR 164) LH 11 (164) RH 1 (153)

While March’s National Hunt Chase was clearly a disappointing race, with only six runners, that should not detract from the impression left by the winner. Not only did Stattler make a monkey of the very smart Run Wild Fred, he did so having conceded the run of the race.

Comparisons with Galvin are inevitable, given they race in the same colours and won the same novice chase at Cheltenham. While connections would no doubt be pleased if he were to match

Galvin’s haul last season (won the Savills Chase, fourth in the Gold Cup), Stattler is further ahead in his development at the same stage and rates an even more exciting prospect.

Going preference Winner on heavy, unraced on good or firmer.

✪✪✪✪✪ L’Homme Presse

7bg

Trainer Venetia Williams

Chase form 111113 (best RPR 166)

LH 113 (166) RH 111 (163)

More straightforward than Ahoy Senor, which made the difference in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham. L’Homme Presse’s Aintree defeat was blamed on a long season and the upshot is he will be campaigned less agressively this time.

We know he jumps left, handles soft ground really well and has ability to spare. The last part could be important: he has about 10lb to find to become a genuine Gold Cup contender and, if early noises about his campaign are to be believed, he will probably line up with something still to prove.

Going preference Winner on good, handles soft well.

✪✪✪✪✪ Capodanno 6 ch g

Trainer Willie Mullins

Chase form 12U41 (best RPR 160)

LH 1U4 (153) RH 21 (160)

A talented JP McManus-owned gelding who by the spring was able to overcome his scratchy jumping just enough to let his deep talent carry him to a Grade 1 novice, although it may well turn out to be dodgy form.

Sound familiar? A year ago this was Chantry House. While Capodanno is not so reliant on reputation as the horse who – incredibly – went off favourite for the most recent King George, he needs to sharpen up his jumping before he takes on the big boys. It held him back at Cheltenham and proved his biggest danger in the closing stages at Punchestown, in a Grade 1 that has provided more than its share of false dawns. Going preference Winner on heavy, best run on the fastest ground he has faced (good to yielding).

✪✪✪✪✪ Protektorat 7bg

Trainer Dan Skelton

Chase form 112212134 (best RPR 172)

LH 1212134 (172) RH 12 (158) Progressed at a rapid rate of knots last season, kicking off with a fast-finishing second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before slamming Native River by 25 lengths in a Grade 2 at Aintree.

He stepped up again when third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, cruising into contention before failing to get home.

It remains to be seen whether it was stamina or a threemonth absence that just drew the sting out of him and he is still unexposed over this trip.

He bounced at Aintree next time and I am already looking forward to the meeting between him and Ahoy Senor in the Bowl, whatever they might do in between.

Going preference Effective on soft and good. ✪✪✪✪✪

Monkfish 8 ch g

Trainer Willie Mullins

Chase form 11112 (best RPR 170)

LH 111 (170) RH 12 (166)

Spent last summer as the Gold Cup favourite after a terrific novice chase campaign where he won four of five starts, including victory in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at short odds.

Unfortunately, with Monkfish’s undoubted talent comes frailty and injury ruled him out of the 2021-22 campaign.

It is not certain when or even if we will see him this season either, but if he does make it back to the track he would be a hugely exciting addition to an already tasty division.

Going preference Has winning form on most goings, but was beaten in a bumper on his only run on good.

Others to consider

In other hands, Bravemansgame could have been in line to reboot the Wayward Lad/One Man/Florida Pearl franchise of horses who stay 3m but sputter out in the Gold Cup. Paul Nicholls is far too clever to fall for that, but if the star-in-waiting who won last year’s Kauto Star, smashing up Ahoy Senor, turns up at Kempton on Boxing Day this year then he might be tempted.

Expect everything to be about the King George and the plan to be reformulated in light of what happens that day. He is a smooth traveller, brilliant jumper and no small talent. The division will be livelier for his presence – and his trainer’s.

My Drogo has been described by Dan Skelton as a Gold Cup horse of the future, but he is not likely to be seen till later in the season after picking up an injury last year so might be better suited to the Ryanair this campaign.

If any sort of misfortune should befall Stattler, his owner Ronnie Bartlett has a couple of enviable spares in Galvin and

Dusart. VERDICT

While there is more talent coming through among the staying chasers than for many years, you cannot call this an open division. The standard set by A Plus Tard challenges any pretenders to start a new golden age, which is what a division with multiple horses rated 180+ would have to be termed.

Galopin Des Champs is the most likely to make it up to that level, but he is not there yet for all the Gold Cup ante-post market might tell you otherwise. That he and so many of the other emerging forces are trained by Willie Mullins suggests we should expect to see a large number of Irish raiders in the British Grade 1s pre-Cheltenham.

It is hard not to be excited about the plans in store for

Ahoy Senor. He seems likely to be campaigned aggressively and has the talent to become a Gold Cup contender too. He and the unexposed Protektorat should be the most exciting of the British contingent.

THE BIG JUMP OFF

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2022-10-17T07:00:00.0000000Z

2022-10-17T07:00:00.0000000Z

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