AINTREE FESTIVAL THE HOME OF THE GRAND NATIONAL

Graeme Rodway identifies the type of horse who wins the National these days and picks out a 40-1 shot who fits the bill

THE Cheltenham Festival is still the biggest fixture of the jumps season in Britain, but the Grand National meeting at Aintree is definitely next in line when it comes to end-of-year objectives.

Some trainers are even targeting it with greater numbers than the festival, and last season Paul Nicholls saddled more runners at Aintree (17) than he did at Cheltenham (nine). He also had more success there, with Clan Des Obeaux, Gelino Bello and Hacker Des Places all winning.

Nicholls’ decision to focus his attention on Aintree shows just how the profile of the meeting as a whole has grown since the turn of the century, and it also appears to be a reaction to the dominance of the Irish at Cheltenham. That is something that just doesn’t happen at Aintree.

Irish trainers saddled six winners at last year’s Grand National meeting, including the big one itself with Noble Yeats. But while the National will always have its own gravitational pull, the rest of the fixture isn’t as high on the list in Ireland, and the Irish challenge isn’t as strong.

There is less than a month between the end of

Cheltenham and the start of Aintree next year, so the turnaround for those attempting to complete the double is quick, and any horse who manages the feat can usually be considered the best in their division by some distance.

So sit back and get comfortable as champions bid to confirm their superiority, and the battle between Cheltenham winners and those who were saved specifically for Aintree commences.

KEY RACES Randox Grand National Saturday, April 15

There probably isn’t a race in the British calendar that has undergone bigger changes than the Grand National this century. The fences, the structure of the weights, the type of horse who can run and even the distance have been altered. It’s a completely different test nowadays.

Put aside whether the changes have been for the better or not, the fact is they are here to stay so what has all this meant for punters? Quite a lot is the answer as the Grand National has always been a solid trends race and it remains so, but those trends have changed entirely.

The modern-day Grand National is no longer unique. It’s now like any other staying chase held in Britain and Ireland and recent results suggest it is increasingly a young horse’s game.

Taking a look at the last ten runnings, the three races from 2012-14 were won by horses aged 11, but the last seven Grand Nationals have gone to horses who were no older than nine. Four were aged eight, and last year Noble

Yeats was the first sevenyear-old to score since World War II.

The swing has been towards unexposed runners, and nine of the last ten winners had won no more than twice in that same season. Therefore, they hadn’t shown their hand to the assessor.

That goes handin-hand with light weights, and seven of the last ten winners carried less than 11 stone, including five of the last six. Dual winner Tiger

Roll was the exception in 2019.

Nine of the last ten winners were running in the race for the first time, while five competed at the Cheltenham Festival, although only two over regulation fences. Tiger

Roll ran in the cross-country before his two wins, and Pineau De Re was third in the Pertemps in 2014.

So what is the key to finding the winner of the National? A young, up-and-coming horse carrying a light weight who has yet to show their hand to the assessor, and is running in the race for the first time. Follow those rules and recent history suggests you won’t be far wrong.

Betway Bowl Thursday, April 13

Paul Nicholls has won this race five times since 2010, twice with Silviniaco Conti and twice with Clan Des Obeaux. What A Friend was his other scorer.

What A Friend won a novice chase at Cheltenham but was generally at his best on flat tracks, while Silviniaco Conti failed to register a win at Prestbury Park and Clan Des Obeaux has yet to score there. It is evident Nicholls targets the race with horses who excel away from Cheltenham. Silviniaco Conti and Clan Des Obeaux are

both dual King

George winners, and there has been a crossover between that race and this. Eight of the last ten winners of the Bowl had competed in that season’s King George and they finished 41114132, so that race is the key.

Aintree Hurdle

Thursday, April 13

This usually goes to a younger hurdler, with nine of the last ten winners aged between six and eight, while all of the last ten winners came into it after competing at the Cheltenham Festival.

Seven of those ran in the Champion Hurdle and finished 43411F2 including last season’s heroine Epatante, who had finished runner-up behind Honeysuckle at Cheltenham.

Of all the Grade 1s at

Aintree, this is maybe the only event that could be considered a championship. There is no Grade 1 hurdle over two and a half miles at the festival, so the Aintree Hurdle is the defacto number one race of the season at the intermediate distance.

It tests speed and stamina, and speed has clearly had the edge in recent years. Three winners since 2012 have come from the Stayers’ Hurdle, so a bit of both is the preference.

Melling Chase Saturday, April 14

Nine of the last ten winners of this race were experienced Grade 1 chasers who had run more than eight times over fences and had won over intermediate distances between 2m2f-2m5f.

Fakir D’Oudairies certainly came into that category when winning it for the second year in a row last season and, although Irish-trained horses have a moderate Aintree record overall, they have excelled in this race in recent years, having won five of the last eight runnings.

It is likely to go the way of the Irish again this season as Allaho and Fakir D’Oudairies are the two outstanding intermediate chasers in training, while Galopin Des Champs could end up here should his Cheltenham Gold Cup mission not go to plan. Gentleman De Mee could also step up.

Liverpool Hurdle Saturday, April 15

Three of the last five Stayers’ Hurdle winners at Cheltenham who attempted to complete the double have done so in the last ten runnings and the other two finished second, including Flooring Porter. He filled the runner-up spot behind Sire Du Berlais just over six months ago.

Course form has often been key and four recent winners had finished in the first four at Aintree’s Grand National fixture before. That is no great surprise considering the differing nature of this flat, sharp track compared to the undulations that are negotiated at Cheltenham.

Three of the last ten winners were Irish-trained, while Whisper won it twice for

Nicky Henderson, but overall it is the British who have enjoyed the best of the recent battles.