How to make small fields work for you this winter

THE term ‘tipping point’ is rarely one you want to hear, whether the subject is climate science or daytime television. But that is what it felt like last autumn, when many of us switched back into jumps mode.

I focus on chases above a certain level (0-120 and up) and here the seemingly subtle change – races that typically had five or six runners were now providing four – felt like a major shift in my day-to-day viewing.

It can be hard, when you are wrestling with the reality of a change that everyone else has already agreed is an extraordinarily bad thing, not to share in the pessimism. For the health of the sport, there is still a sense of worry as to where this trend leads.

However, purely in terms of how I watched and analysed races last year, I found smaller fields much less frightening than most of my colleagues did. It would be a stretch to think of them as a blessing, even a mixed one, but as time went on the practicalities of small-field betting became clearer. The possibilities soon followed.

As we set out for a second season of what sometimes feels like my post-each-way betting life, here are some observations and lessons from last year to help you maximise the opportunities in smallfield races.

Knowing the horses is even more important

Gaps in your knowledge of the Irish-trained runners in the Eider or Scottish National is no great sin and they are relatively easy to close. In a three-runner race at Ludlow, a similarly sized blind spot will completely skew your view on a race.

An example of this caught me out recently, in the staying handicap chase at Chepstow’s big autumn meeting. After assessing each of the runners, I convinced myself Tea Clipper would win. Most of his rivals were unlikely to be fit, or otherwise represented a much lesser challenge than those he had faced in the spring. Peregrine Run was in there and, while I had not seen much of him recently, I took a short inspection of recent runs on top of longstanding knowledge about a formerly classy 12-year-old to be sufficient. You can guess the rest.

The good news is that knowing horses is not such an onerous task if they have typically raced in small fields. A four-runner 3m handicap chase, even on just one viewing, is six minutes spent in the company of four horses. You’ll soon get to know these horses like old

friends.

Front-runners do not have the same edge

This is just a short-term truce, as rest assured I will shortly return to normal winter service of bombarding anyone who will read with reminders of the advantage in making the running over fences.

The numbers are there for all to see. In all handicap chases in Britain and Ireland since the start of 2021, frontrunners have won 625 races when the markets would have expected 477 winners. Those held up won 804 races, against an expected winners value of 1,006, where an even-money shot is 0.5 expected winners.

One of the main reasons for the bias is the ability of those in the clear to jump without impediment. Clearly, when there are fewer runners this becomes less of an issue for those who are in the pack. So this effect tapers off and we hear more from the law of slowly run races, best summed up by James Willoughby: “When a race turns into a sprint, the best place to be is not on the front, but on a sprinter.”

In handicap chases with six runners or fewer, hold-up horses do not do appreciably better (220 wins versus 275 expected). But the edge held by leaders ebbs away. In these races, the return is 324 actual versus 275 expected.

Trim field sizes again, to five or fewer, and the same trend continues. Hold-up horses are again struggling in the general case (127 wins, 155 expected) but leaders and prominent racers are tending towards parity in terms of actual (556) and expected (524) winners.

Find new ways to pin down strong form

Small fields close off the most obvious avenues to identifying strong form. Collateral formlines become harder to advertise with relatively few subsequent runners. And an unexposed pair coming clear does not excite in quite the same way when there were only two others in the race.

It is always advised to incorporate some sort of time analysis into your betting and I have written before about how straightforward it can be to record some simple finishing-speed sectionals. Without this, the race at Ffos Las in March in which Valsheda and Jaytee came well clear might have blended in with so many other similar heats.

Having clocked how quickly the winner ran from four out to the line, from a stuttering start given how he belted that fence, I marked him out as deeply interesting for the season ahead.

I rarely use striding data over jumps, for two main reasons: the data does not exist at most of the big tracks, and getting an average is much harder with obstacles in the way. A holistic view, which you can get by watching how horses’ legs move and just occasionally counting by hand, can give all the pertinent information for little effort.

This can be especially helpful in races that tend to get tactical. Sometimes horses who shape as though 2m is too sharp are just slow striders who need to employ more forcing tactics.

Teach yourself a new staking plan

First of all, do not use the lack of fancy prices in small-field races to justify increasing your stakes. While there is a change in mindset required if you were raised in the faith of the 50p trixie, making money from small-field, everyday races is a process of slow accumulation. The big paydays are just for Saturday handicaps, by and large.

Once you are familiar enough with your chosen division to know each runner in a race intimately, how best to make it pay? The win single might not always be the best approach. You may find you end up backing two or three in a race, or laying one who seems unlikely to cope. The best play could be a forecast, or a place lay, or just backing whoever sets off in front after a fence if you believe that will be pivotal. There are dozens of ways to make your knowledge of your chosen pool of horses count and I used more of them than ever last season.

But beware: if you are making such a fundamental change to the way you bet, it might be an idea to reduce stakes in the short term. New ways of betting can quickly become expensive to the unwary. But there are rewards to be had in small-field races to those willing to learn and adapt.