Walk this way

Festival hero Corach Rambler can land National spoils for Russell

WHEN betting ante-post there are more ingredients to finding a good bet than just pinpointing a horse you fancy. I’ve always felt it is just as important to find a race that has a good shape to it.

What I mean by that is that we can all have our fancies for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March, but A Plus Tard sets the bar extremely high and Galopin Des Champs has the potential to be the next chasing superstar.

If, like me, you’re a fan of Ahoy Senor or L’Homme Presse, do you really want to back them now to beat that pair when they have to improve about a stone? At this stage I most certainly do not.

By contrast, the staying hurdlers don’t look a great bunch. Flooring Porter seems to be the best of them by quite some way and he’s won the last two Stayers’ Hurdles easily, but there is certainly room at the top in that division because bar him the rest look a moderate bunch.

However, you still have to find a horse you like at the right price to make it worthwhile and, while I like Blazing Khal and Marie’s Rock as they both have Cheltenham form and will relish a strongly run 3m, the former has been off the track for ages and the latter might stay down the mares’ route.

One who does appeal at this stage is Ahorsewithnoname at 14-1 for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the festival, simply because that is where she is going as connections have already said it is the target this season.

Runner-up at 50-1 in the race last March on ground that was considered way too soft, Ahorsewithnoname has improved markedly on the Flat and can still run in the race because she has never won over hurdles. There should be plenty more to come from her over hurdles.

Of course Willie Mullins is going to have a massive say in the result of any race at the Cheltenham Festival and especially one confined to mares, but he had six in the race last season and Ahorsewithnoname beat them all.

There is obviously a chance Mullins will unearth another star, but Ahorsewithnoname has rock-solid credentials and we know where she’s heading, all being well.

It was tempting to suggest the Ballymore winner Sir Gerhard for the Arkle at around 7-1 but it was only about 20 minutes before declaration time last season that we knew he was going to the Ballymore, not the Supreme, and he could just as easily turn up in the Turners.

Similarly, is Facile Vega going to go for the Supreme or the Ballymore? Basically it’s hard to second-guess Mullins

the day before the festival, let alone now.

That sort of rules out all the novice races as suitable antepost betting vehicles, although I often like chancing a decent Flat horse in the Triumph Hurdle at a big price at this stage.

It could be argued that the influx of horses being bought from France who we know nothing about has made the Triumph a more difficult betting proposition at this stage, but horses off the Flat in Britain have fared well in recent runnings.

Pied Piper was third last season, Goshen would have won by miles in 2020 but for his accident at the last and Pentland Hills did win in 2019, despite having been beaten off a mark of 73 on his last Flat start before joining Nicky Henderson.

The market suggests Auteuil winner Lossiemouth might be the next big thing for Mullins in the juvenile ranks, but I couldn’t have been more impressed by Cougar at Gowran Park on his hurdles debut this month and he has Triumph Hurdle written all over him.

Prior to winning his maiden by seven lengths on soft ground at the Curragh for Aidan O’Brien, Cougar had been a staying-on second in the Ulster Derby and he has a Flat rating of 92.

I reckon he could easily have hit a mark in the 100s if he’d been kept on the Flat but it looks a good decision to have gone over hurdles given the way he jumped at Gowran.

Cougar absolutely sprinted down to the last two and pinged them without losing any momentum. He basically looked a total natural and, when that is coupled with his Flat form, he looks sure to do well over hurdles.

Last season his trainer Padraig Roche landed the Boodles with the juvenile

Brazil and there is obviously the chance that Cougar could be aimed at that race instead, but I think he’s much too good for that. At 22-1, he’ll be a fun bet to have tucked away over the winter months.

In order to get a good handle on the jumps season, I spent a couple of days going through all the videos of last season’s major races and there was a staying handicap chaser who stood out like a sore thumb.

The Ultima wouldn’t have been the best race ever run at the Cheltenham Festival but

Corach Rambler could hardly have been a more impressive winner. If the race had been over 3m2f, not 3m1f, he would surely have won by 20-plus lengths.

He just screams Grand National to me and he comes from a yard that has a brilliant record with long-distance staying chasers.

Ahoy Senor is top of the current list, along with Corach Rambler, but Lucinda Russell has won the National with One For Arthur and the Scottish equivalent with Mighty Thunder – and how Silver By Nature got beaten by Dream Alliance in the Welsh version is anyone’s guess. It was such a freak of nature that they made a film out of it!

The way Corach Rambler stormed up the Cheltenham hill strongly suggested that marathon trips would be ideal and the 33-1 generally available for Aintree looks more than fair at this early stage.

BEST BETS Ahorsewithnoname

Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, Cheltenham Festival, March 16

1pt win at 14-1 bet365

Cougar

Triumph Hurdle, Cheltenham Festival,

March 17

1pt win at 22-1 Paddy Power and Betfair

Corach Rambler

Grand National, Aintree, April 15

1pt win at 33-1 generally