SANDOWN SATURDAY 2.25 BETFAIR TINGLE CREEK CHASE (GRADE 1) 2M

ÃPOSITIVE TRENDS

Market The record of the eight clear favourites since 2011 is 11312111. The joint-favourites in 2013 and 2014 came 3147. 9/10 have gone to one of the first three in the betting. Dodging Bullets (2014) was the exception at 9-1. BHA Ratings Horses rated 169+ are 6/8 since 2011 (+£4.73). Dodging Bullets is the lowest-rated winner in the last decade and he was on 158. Those with a rating below 158 are 0/28 since 2011. Recent form 8/10 since 2011 posted a top 3 finish last time (five winning). Multiple winners There have been ten multiple winners of this race since 1987. Paul Nicholls is responsible for four – Kauto Star, Twist Magic, Master Minded and Politologue (2017 and 2020). Breeding French-breds (FR) are 7/36 in the last ten years (19%) but if you had backed all of them blindly you’d have made a £15.43 loss to a £1 stake. Sizing Europe, Dodging Bullets and Altior were bred in IRE, GB, IRE. Age Horses aged six or seven are 5/30 (17%), while those aged 8+ are 5/33 (15%). Days Since Run 6/10 had been off the track for between 20 and 32 days. The other four arrived fresh from 174+ days off the track.

ÄNEGATIVE TRENDS Betting Those sent off 10-1 or bigger are 0/30 since 2011.

CONCLUSION

Nine of the last ten winners were from the first three in the betting. CHACUN POUR SOI, Nube Negra and Greaneteen head the market in that order. Willie Mullins won this race in 2016 and is represented by Chacun Pour Soi, a 176-rated French bred (FR), and he gets the vote over Nube Negra.