Racing Post

Group 1 form key to finding the winner

Graeme Rodway with today’s big-race analysis

THE Jersey Stakes might hold only Group 3 status but it is generally contested by horses capable of going to the top and Group 1 form has been key to finding the winner.

Six of the last ten winners were dropping in class after competing at the highest level in Britain and Ireland on their previous start, and those six scorers came from a pool of just 33 runners (18 per cent). Furthermore, those 33 beat an average of 59.6 per cent of their rivals.

A £1 bet on each would have made a profit of £31 and that doesn’t even include Le Brivido, who justified 2-1 favouritism in 2017 after finishing second in the

French 2,000 Guineas.

Naval Crown didn’t just compete in a Group 1 last time, he almost won one. He raced freely in front in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and briefly looked likely to hold on entering the final quarter-mile, only to be run down in the final furlong, finishing fourth to Poetic Flare.

Naval Crown was just a place behind Lucky Vega and that form is strong. Poetic Flare and Lucky Vega finished first and second in the Group 1 St James’s Palace here on Tuesday.

The drop to seven furlongs promises to suit Naval Crown and he looks the class angle.

Mutasaabeq finished three places behind Naval Crown in the Guineas and is less exposed. He was having only his third start, so lacked experience in the opening Classic.

Charlie Hills saddled Dutch

Connection to win this race in 2015 after finishing seventh in the 2,000 Guineas. Mutasaabeq did it at an earlier stage of his career though, and is rated 1lb higher than Dutch Connection was before his Jersey on RPRs.

Vadream finished sixth in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket on her latest start and the six fillies who contested this race after running in a Group 1 in Britain or Ireland on their last outing in the last ten years finished 120637. It’s nine years since the last filly to win and that was Ishvana at 20-1 in 2012 after finishing second in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

Legion Of Honour − ninth in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket – and New Mandate are the others who come here straight out of Group 1s and New Mandate returns from 225 days off.

Only one winner was making their reappearance in the last ten years and that was Molatham in 2020. However, that result should probably be considered an anomaly as the season didn’t start until June 1 due to Covid-19, so most of last year’s runners were seasonal debutants.

Up-and-coming French trainer Yann Barberot runs Fast Raaj, who won a Deauville Group 3 last time. Fast Raaj will be Barberot’s first Royal Ascot runner and only his second in Britain. His first, Cry Baby, was a 25-1 fourth on AllWeather Finals day at Lingfield in 2019.

JERSEY STAKES

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2021-06-19T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-06-19T07:00:00.0000000Z

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